Keo nha cai



The gioi bong da keonhacai khong chi la nhung pha bong dep mat, nhung ban thang nghet tho hay nhung man trinh dien ca nhan xuat sac. Dang sau ve hao nhoang do la mot kho tang du lieu khong lo, mot he thong du lieu thong ke bong da phuc tap nhung vo cung hap dan, dang dinh hinh cach chung ta hieu, phan tich va tham chi la dat cuoc vao mon the thao vua. Doi voi nhung nguoi dam me thuc su, nhung con so khong bao gio noi doi; chung la ngon ngu tham lang he lo chan tuong cua mot doi bong hay mot cau thu.



Su troi day cua cong nghe phan tich du lieu (analytics) da bien bong da tu mot mon the thao dua tren cam tinh thanh mot linh vuc khoa hoc ung dung. Ngay nay, tu cac huan luyen vien hang dau the gioi cho den nhung nguoi ham mo theo doi sat sao tren cac dien dan, viec nam vung cac chi so thong ke la dieu kien tien quyet de co cai nhin toan dien. Nhung chinh xac thi nhung du lieu nay bao ham nhung gi, va lam the nao chung ta co the khai thac toi da gia tri tu chung?



Tu Nhung Con So Co Ban Den Chi So Tien Tien (xG va xA)



Ban dau, thong ke bong da co ve don gian: so tran thang, so ban thang, kiem soat bong. Tuy nhien, su phat trien vuot bac cua cac cong ty chuyen ve du lieu da dua chung ta vuot xa nhung chi so be mat nay. Gio day, trong tam dang dich chuyen sang cac chi so du bao va danh gia chat luong co hoi.



Hai chi so noi bat nhat trong ky nguyen phan tich hien dai la Expected Goals (xG) va Expected Assists (xA). xG do luong chat luong cua mot co hoi ghi ban dua tren vi tri, loai hinh dut diem, va cac yeu to khac, cho biet kha nang ghi ban thuc te cua cu sut do (vi du, mot cu sut co xG la 0.3 co nghia la no co 30% kha nang tro thanh ban thang). Tuong tu, xA danh gia chat luong cua duong chuyen dan den cu sut.



Viec theo doi xG va xA mang lai cai nhin sau sac hon nhieu so voi ban thang va kien tao thuc te. Mot doi co xG cao hon nhieu so voi so ban thang thuc te co the dang gap van de o khau dut diem hoac bi thu mon doi phuong thi dau qua xuat sac. Nguoc lai, mot doi co xG thap nhung ghi nhieu ban co the dang "an may" va kho duy tri phong do do trong dai han. Day chinh la luc du lieu thong ke bong da phat huy suc manh tien doan cua minh.



Kiem Soat Bong Khong Con La Uu Tien Tuyet Doi



Mot trong nhung thay doi lon nhat trong nhan thuc bong da hien dai lien quan den ty le kiem soat bong. Truoc day, viec giu bong lau thuong duoc coi la dau hieu cua su thong tri. Tuy nhien, cac thong ke nang cao da chi ra rang kiem soat bong (Possession) khong phai luc nao cung tuong quan truc tiep voi chien thang.



Cac doi bong hang dau nhu Liverpool duoi thoi Klopp hay Manchester City cua Guardiola da chung minh rang viec chu dong trao quyen kiem soat bong cho doi thu o nhung khu vuc it nguy hiem, sau do thuc hien cac pha chuyen doi trang thai nhanh va tan cong truc dien, lai hieu qua hon. Cac chi so nhu So lan gay ap luc thanh cong (Pressures), Ty le chuyen doi phong ngu thanh tan cong (Transitions Rate), va So lan xam nhap 1/3 san cuoi cung (Final Third Entries) gio day quan trong hon nhieu so voi chi so giu bong 60-40 don thuan.



Phan Tich Ca Nhan Nha cai ca do bong da: Vuot Ra Ngoai Goal va Assist



Thong ke khong chi ap dung cho tap the. Doi voi cac cau thu, viec danh gia hieu suat da tro nen chi tiet hon bao gio het. Thay vi chi nhin vao so ban thang cua mot tien dao, chung ta xem xet xG khong bao gom phat den (Non-Penalty xG) de danh gia kha nang kien tao co hoi thuc su cua ho trong vong cam.



Doi voi cac hau ve, cac chi so nhu So lan tac bong thanh cong trong 1/3 san doi phuong (Defensive Actions in Attacking Third) hay Ty le chien thang tranh chap tren khong (Aerial Success Rate) cung cap thong tin quy gia ve kha nang phong ngu chu dong va kha nang khong chien. Dieu nay dac biet quan trong khi danh gia cac thuong vu chuyen nhuong; cac cau lac bo thong minh khong con chi chi tien dua tren danh tieng ma dua tren su phu hop cua cac chi so thong ke voi triet ly chien thuat cua ho.



Ung Dung Thuc Tien: Nang Tam Nguoi Ham Mo



Lam the nao nguoi ham mo binh thuong co the tan dung du lieu thong ke bong da?



Thu nhat, no giup ban tranh duoc nhung cai bay tam ly pho bien. Khi mot doi dang co chuoi tran te hai nhung xG cua ho van rat cao, dieu do cho thay van de co the chi la dut diem kem may man chu khong phai la su sup do hoan toan ve mat loi choi.



Thu hai, no cai thien trai nghiem xem tran dau. Khi ban hieu duoc rang mot doi dang choi voi chien thuat pressing cuong do cao, ban se chu y hon den mat do di chuyen va so lan gay ap luc thay vi chi cham chu vao duong chuyen qua lai o khu vuc giua san.



Cuoi cung, doi voi nhung nguoi quan tam den khia canh du doan, viec phan tich su chenh lech giua hieu suat thuc te va ky vong thong ke (xG/xGA) la chia khoa de tim ra nhung co hoi co gia tri.



Tom lai, bong da dang ngay cang duoc dinh luong hoa. Du lieu thong ke bong da khong lam mat di su lang man cua mon the thao nay; nguoc lai, no lam phong phu them su hieu biet cua chung ta, mang lai mot lop chieu sau phan tich tuyet voi, bien moi tran dau thanh mot bai toan thu vi can duoc giai ma bang nhung con so xac thuc. Nam vung nhung chi so nay chinh la trang bi tot nhat de ban thuong thuc tron ven ve dep khoa hoc an sau tung pha bong.