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[size= 14px]Bong da kqbd hom nay, mon the thao vua, luon la mot ban giao huong day cam xuc, noi nhung khoanh khac bat ngo co the lam thay doi cuc dien chi trong tich tac. Tuy nhien, dang sau su ngau hung ay la mot he thong du lieu khong lo, mot kho tang thong ke dang ngay cang tro nen sac ben, giup chung ta khong chi hieu ma con du doan duoc xu huong ket qua bong da mot cach chinh xac hon. Khoa hoc du lieu da len loi vao tung ngoc ngach cua mon the thao nay, bien nhung phong doan chu quan thanh nhung phan tich dua tren bang chung vung chac.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Su khac biet giua mot tran dau hap dan va mot man trinh dien co the du doan duoc thuong nam o viec ap dung cac mo hinh thong ke tien tien. Ngay nay, nguoi ham mo, huan luyen vien va cac nha cai deu tim kiem gia tri trong cac chi so, khong chi dung lai o ty so cuoi cung. Viec theo doi va phan tich du lieu thong ke khong chi la mot xu huong ma da tro thanh mot yeu to then chot trong viec dinh hinh chien luoc thi dau hien dai.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Tu Ty So Don Thuan Den Nhung Chi So Vi Mo[/size]

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[size= 14px]Trong qua khu, viec danh gia mot doi bong thuong xoay quanh so ban thang va ban thua. Tuy nhien, su phat trien cua cong nghe theo doi tran dau da mo ra mot ky nguyen moi cua phan tich du lieu. Cac chi so nang cao, thuong duoc biet den voi ten goi "xG" (Expected Goals – Ban thang ky vong), da cach mang hoa cach chung ta do luong hieu suat tan cong va phong ngu.[/size]

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[size= 14px]xG do luong chat luong cua moi co hoi ghi ban duoc tao ra. Mot cu sut tu goc hep, sau mot pha phoi hop phuc tap, se co chi so xG thap hon nhieu so voi mot cu sut doi mat thu mon tu cu ly 5 met. Khi so sanh xG cua mot doi voi so ban thang thuc te ho ghi duoc, chung ta co the xac dinh lieu doi bong do dang "an may" (ghi ban nhieu hon xG) hay dang "den du" (ghi ban it hon xG). Day la mot cong cu manh me de du doan su dieu chinh ve mat ket qua bong da trong tuong lai. Neu mot doi lien tuc tao ra co hoi lon nhung khong the chuyen hoa, som hay muon, hieu suat ghi ban cua ho se phai quay ve muc trung binh thong ke.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Tuong tu, chi so xGA (Expected Goals Against) giup danh gia suc manh phong ngu mot cach khach quan. Mot doi co xGA thap cho thay hang phong ngu cua ho hoat dong hieu qua trong viec han che cac tinh huong nguy hiem ma doi thu tao ra.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Ap Luc va Su Chiem Linh: Dinh Luong The Tran[/size]

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[size= 14px]Khong chi dung lai o viec ghi ban, thong ke con giup dinh luong muc do kiem soat va ap luc ma mot doi tao ra. Cac chi so nhu "Ban thang ky vong tren moi duong chuyen nguy hiem" hay "So lan gay ap luc thanh cong" cung cap cai nhin sau sac hon ve su nang dong va chien thuat cua doi bong.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Khai niem "Possession" (kiem soat bong) da loi thoi neu xet rieng le. Mot doi co the giu bong 70% thoi gian nhung lai chuyen bong an toan o khu vuc giua san ma khong tao ra moi de doa thuc su. Nguoc lai, mot doi choi phan cong co the chi giu bong 35% nhung lai tao ra nhieu co hoi xG chat luong hon. Thong ke hien dai tap trung vao Pressure Zone (Vung gay ap luc) – noi cac pha tac bong, cuop bong va cat bong dien ra gan khung thanh doi phuong. Nhung du lieu nay giup phan tich kha nang chuyen doi trang thai nhanh chong cua doi bong, yeu to quyet dinh trong cac tran dau co ket qua bong da sit sao.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Vai Tro Cua Thong Ke Trong Du Doan Ty So[/size]

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[size= 14px]Viec du doan ty so chinh xac la mot nhiem vu day thach thuc, nhung mo hinh thong ke, dac biet la viec ap dung Phan phoi Poisson (Poisson Distribution), da cai thien dang ke do chinh xac. Mo hinh nay gia dinh rang so ban thang ma moi doi ghi duoc trong mot tran dau la doc lap va tuan theo mot phan phoi xac suat nhat dinh, dua tren suc manh tan cong trung binh cua doi nha va suc manh phong ngu trung binh cua doi khach.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Khi ket hop Poisson voi cac chi so nang cao nhu xG, mo hinh du doan tro nen tinh vi hon. Thay vi chi su dung so ban thang thuc te trong qua khu (thuong bi anh huong boi may man), cac nha phan tich su dung xG trung binh de thiet lap "suc manh tan cong va phong ngu" thuc su cua doi bong. Dieu nay mang lai mot cai nhin on dinh va it bien dong hon, giup nguoi xem co the nam bat duoc ban chat thuc su dang sau ket qua bong da ma ho chung kien.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Tom lai, thong ke trong bong da khong con la nhung con so kho khan sau 90 phut. Chung la ngon ngu mo ta qua trinh, la cong cu de giai ma y dinh chien thuat va la nen tang khoa hoc de danh gia hieu suat. Viec nam bat duoc xu huong thong ke nay khong chi lam phong phu them trai nghiem xem bong da ma con cung cap nhung cai nhin sau sac ve cach ma cac doi bong hang dau dang co gang gianh chien thang mot cach ben vung. Xem them: Keo My, Bai viet lien quan: [/size]

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[size= 14px]https://www.ttlxshipping.com/forum/topic/264465/kqbd[/size]

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[size= 14px]https://www.d-ushop.com/forum/topic/78767/kqbd[/size]

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[size= 14px]https://www.ekdarun.com/forum/topic/119596/kqbd[/size]

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